SJK-j Apollo 1–3 Virkiä: Result & Stats

SJK-j Apollo

1 – 3

Virkiä

3/5/2024

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundWallsport Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SJK-j Apollo9%

×Draw10%

Virkiä82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJK-j ApolloExpected goals in this matchVirkiä

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

5.33

SJK-j Apollo

1.91

Virkiä

5.33

Virkiä creates 179% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

3.14

creates per match

6.67

4.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

SJK-j Apollo

3.14

Virkiä

6.67

allows per match

SJK-j Apollo

4.00

Virkiä

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK-j Apollo+0.00on par

Virkiä+0.00on par

Total goals

Over97
Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK-j Apollo ↓

Virkiä →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–33%

0–43%

1–00%

1–11%

1–23%

1–35%

1–46%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–35%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–44%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–42%

Most likely 1–4 (6%) · grid covers 52% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

97%3%3.5

90%10%4.5

79%21%

Double chance

SJK-j Apollo or draw

18%

SJK-j Apollo or Virkiä

90%

Draw or Virkiä

91%

Winning margin

SJK-j Apollo wins by 2+

Virkiä wins by 2+

67%

Team goals

SJK-j Apollo 1+ goals

85%

SJK-j Apollo 2+ goals

57%

SJK-j Apollo 3+ goals

30%

Virkiä 1+ goals

99%

Virkiä 2+ goals

96%

Virkiä 3+ goals

86%

Draw no bet

SJK-j Apollo (draw refunded)

10%

Virkiä (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SJK-j Apollo at home — creates 3.14, concedes 4.00 · 7 matches

Virkiä away — creates 6.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SJK-j Apollo attack 3.14 + Virkiä defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Virkiä attack 6.67 + SJK-j Apollo defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 5.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 82%?"

SJK-j Apollo scores more

level

10%

Virkiä scores more

82%

Virkiä at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Virkiä will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff