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SJK-j Apollo vs KPV-j — Suomen Cup 2018

SJK-j Apollo
SJK-j Apollo
FT
2 – 10
HT: 1 – 5
KPV-j
KPV-j
4/9/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundWallsport Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SJK-j Apollo26%
×Draw16%
KPV-j57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK-j Apollo
2.46
KPV-j
3.58

KPV-j creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

SJK-j Apollo
3.14
KPV-j
3.15

allows per match

SJK-j Apollo
4.00
KPV-j
1.77

finishing

SJK-j Apollo+0.00on par
KPV-j+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK-j Apollo ↓

KPV-j →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–23%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
84%16%4.5
69%31%

Double chance

SJK-j Apollo or draw
43%
SJK-j Apollo or KPV-j
84%
Draw or KPV-j
74%

Winning margin

SJK-j Apollo wins by 2+
14%
KPV-j wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

SJK-j Apollo 1+ goals
91%
SJK-j Apollo 2+ goals
70%
SJK-j Apollo 3+ goals
44%
KPV-j 1+ goals
97%
KPV-j 2+ goals
86%
KPV-j 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

SJK-j Apollo (draw refunded)
31%
KPV-j (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK-j Apollo at home — creates 3.14, concedes 4.00 · 7 matches

KPV-j away — creates 3.15, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK-j Apollo attack 3.14 + KPV-j defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.46

KPV-j attack 3.15 + SJK-j Apollo defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SJK-j Apollo scores more
26%
level
16%
KPV-j scores more
57%

KPV-j at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "KPV-j will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: SJK-j Apollo 2–10 KPV-j

KPV-j beat SJK-j Apollo 10-2 in Suomen Cup on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Wallsport Areena in Seinäjoki.