SJK Akatemia 3–0 VIFK: Result & Stats

SJK Akatemia

FT

3 – 0

VIFK

6/20/2019

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Round 8OmaSP Stadion (Seinäjoki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

SJK Akatemia68%

×Draw17%

VIFK15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJK AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchVIFK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.14

SJK Akatemia

2.58

VIFK

1.14

SJK Akatemia creates 126% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 72 away

3.18

creates per match

1.36

0.91

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

SJK Akatemia

3.18

VIFK

1.36

allows per match

SJK Akatemia

0.91

VIFK

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

VIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

VIFK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw

85%

SJK Akatemia or VIFK

83%

Draw or VIFK

32%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

46%

VIFK wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

92%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

72%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

47%

VIFK 1+ goals

68%

VIFK 2+ goals

32%

VIFK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

82%

VIFK (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 3.18, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

VIFK away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.97 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 3.18 + VIFK defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.58

VIFK attack 1.36 + SJK Akatemia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more

68%

level

17%

VIFK scores more

15%

SJK Akatemia at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff