SJK Akatemia 1–1 Turku PS: Result & Stats

SJK Akatemia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Turku PS

A. Atarah 36'

N. Saarikivi 70'

8/24/2024

Ykkösliiga · Round 21OmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

SJK Akatemia32%

×Draw25%

Turku PS43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJK AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchTurku PS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.54

SJK Akatemia

1.30

Turku PS

1.54

Turku PS creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 26 away

1.41

creates per match

1.73

1.35

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

SJK Akatemia

1.41

Turku PS

1.73

allows per match

SJK Akatemia

1.35

Turku PS

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

Turku PS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw

57%

SJK Akatemia or Turku PS

75%

Draw or Turku PS

68%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

14%

Turku PS wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

73%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

37%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

14%

Turku PS 1+ goals

79%

Turku PS 2+ goals

45%

Turku PS 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

43%

Turku PS (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 1.41 + Turku PS defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Turku PS attack 1.73 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more

32%

level

25%

Turku PS scores more

43%

Turku PS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

19'

34'

36'

46'

N. Saarikivi← E. Pitkälä

51'

N. Tahmbi

56'

A. Lyyra← J. Nikkilä

59'

J. Lakkamäki← O. Häggström

59'

R. Sjöroos← R. Riski

65'

A. Bostrom

68'

S. Yakubu

70'

N. Saarikivi

75'

E. Honkola← A. Atarah

75'

E. Akansase← O. Hänninen

81'

Moses Turay← S. Sulaiman

89'

A. Soiniemi

90+1'

M. Turay

90+3'

M. Niemela

SJK

Turku

1

Niemelä

27

Hetemaj

2

▼

30

17

6

18

▼

Pitkälä

22

Boström

10

▼

Riski

29

Muzaci

11

Muhammed

14

▼

25

16

27

35

23

6

72

▼

Nikkilä

8

Armah

17

▼

Hänninen

19

⚽

▼

Atarah

Manager: T. Lehtinen

56'▲A. Lyyra←▼J. Nikkilä

75'▲E. Honkola←▼A. Atarah

75'▲E. Akansase←▼O. Hänninen

81'▲Moses Turay←▼S. Sulaiman

SJK Akatemia substitutes

47Lyyra26Honkola33Akansase7Turay60Kivelä53Machaal5Malik

Manager: M. Nuutinen

46'▲N. Saarikivi←▼E. Pitkälä

59'▲J. Lakkamäki←▼O. Häggström

59'▲R. Sjöroos←▼R. Riski

Turku PS substitutes

8Saarikivi14Lakkamäki20Sjöroos5Pakkanen23Ulmanen26Ikonen31Nokelainen