SJK Akatemia 1–1 P-Iirot: Result & Stats

SJK Akatemia

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

P-Iirot

E. Honkola 55'

M. Jalkanen 63' (pen)

6/16/2024

Suomen Cup · 5th RoundOmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SJK Akatemia6%

×Draw10%

P-Iirot84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJK AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchP-Iirot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

3.75

SJK Akatemia

1.01

P-Iirot

3.75

P-Iirot creates 271% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

0.89

creates per match

4.40

3.11

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

SJK Akatemia

0.89

P-Iirot

4.40

allows per match

SJK Akatemia

3.11

P-Iirot

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

P-Iirot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

P-Iirot →

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–38%

0–48%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–12%

2–23%

2–34%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw

16%

SJK Akatemia or P-Iirot

90%

Draw or P-Iirot

94%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

P-Iirot wins by 2+

68%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

64%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

27%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

P-Iirot 1+ goals

97%

P-Iirot 2+ goals

88%

P-Iirot 3+ goals

70%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

P-Iirot (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 0.89, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

P-Iirot away — creates 4.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 0.89 + P-Iirot defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

P-Iirot attack 4.40 + SJK Akatemia defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 3.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 84%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more

level

10%

P-Iirot scores more

84%

P-Iirot at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "P-Iirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

E. Essel

46'

J. Nikkilä← E. Hyytinen

46'

L. Kyllönen← T. Helle

46'

52'

54'

55'

59'

61'

63'

M. JalkanenPenalty

65'

A. Machaal← E. Honkola

74'

T. Kangaskokko← E. Hautamäki

81'

A. Machaal

82'

E. Ahde← O. Repo

87'

O. Hanninen

87'

A. Johansson← A. Arvela

SJK

P-Iirot

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Aromaa

46'▲J. Nikkilä←▼E. Hyytinen

46'▲L. Kyllönen←▼T. Helle

46'▲O. Raiski←▼E. Essel

65'▲A. Machaal←▼E. Honkola

74'▲T. Kangaskokko←▼E. Hautamäki

SJK Akatemia substitutes

NikkiläKyllönenRaiskiMachaalKangaskokkoKiveläAkansase

Manager: J. Grasso

82'▲E. Ahde←▼O. Repo

87'▲A. Johansson←▼A. Arvela

P-Iirot substitutes

AhdeJohanssonKoivuMännistöHelinBabbHalminen

Match Recap: SJK Akatemia vs P-Iirot

SJK Akatemia and P-Iirot drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on June 16, 2024.

Goals: E. Honkola (55'), M. Jalkanen (63' pen).

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.

SJK Akatemia vs P-Iirot — Suomen Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SJK Akatemia vs P-Iirot