SJK Akatemia 2–0 MyPa: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

SJK Akatemia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

MyPa

S. Sipola 86'

J. Streng 21'

10/31/2020

Ykkönen · Round 14OmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SJK Akatemia63%

×Draw19%

MyPa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJK AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchMyPa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.20

SJK Akatemia

2.36

MyPa

1.20

SJK Akatemia creates 97% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 25 away

1.76

creates per match

0.84

1.55

allows per match

2.96

creates per match

SJK Akatemia

1.76

MyPa

0.84

allows per match

SJK Akatemia

1.55

MyPa

2.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

MyPa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw

82%

SJK Akatemia or MyPa

81%

Draw or MyPa

37%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

41%

MyPa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

90%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

68%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

41%

MyPa 1+ goals

70%

MyPa 2+ goals

34%

MyPa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

77%

MyPa (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

MyPa away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 1.76 + MyPa defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.36

MyPa attack 0.84 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more

63%

level

19%

MyPa scores more

18%

SJK Akatemia at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

O. Adawi

21'

J. Streng

46'

N. Rautomäki← O. Kähkönen

46'

V. Hietala← A. Jormakka

46'

V. Kangasniemi← E. Pellikka

65'

R. Malolo← G. Westerlund

70'

J. Lindberg

84'

A. Aromaa← A. Kujanpää

86'

S. Sipola

89'

K. Matila

89'

J. Takanen← O. Adawi

SJK

MyPa

1

7

23

4

13

▼

Kähkönen

31

Lindberg

11

Huttunen

8

▼

Jormakka

9

Hernesnie

3

Obeng

14

▼

32

15

21

23

14

⚽

Sipola

35

▼

Kujanpää

31

▼

Westerlun

8

Matila

11

⚽

Streng

10

▼

Adawi

4

Pihlaja

Manager: T. Dunne

65'▲R. Malolo←▼G. Westerlund

84'▲A. Aromaa←▼A. Kujanpää

89'▲J. Takanen←▼O. Adawi

SJK Akatemia substitutes

6Malolo20Aromaa18Takanen24Kivimäki26Heinonen34Marttinen37Pahkala

Manager: M. Honkanen

46'▲N. Rautomäki←▼O. Kähkönen

46'▲V. Hietala←▼A. Jormakka

46'▲V. Kangasniemi←▼E. Pellikka

MyPa substitutes

15Rautomäki18Hietala24Kangasniemi27Roponen30Lindström