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SJK Akatemia vs KPV Kokkola — Suomen Cup 2018

SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
2/14/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 4Wallsport Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SJK Akatemia6%
×Draw12%
KPV Kokkola82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK Akatemia
0.59
KPV Kokkola
2.77

KPV Kokkola creates 369% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

SJK Akatemia
0.89
KPV Kokkola
2.43

allows per match

SJK Akatemia
3.11
KPV Kokkola
0.29

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–214%
0–313%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw
18%
SJK Akatemia or KPV Kokkola
88%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
94%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
1%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
45%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
12%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
2%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
94%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
76%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
6%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 0.89, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 0.89 + KPV Kokkola defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.59

KPV Kokkola attack 2.43 + SJK Akatemia defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more
6%
level
12%
KPV Kokkola scores more
82%

KPV Kokkola at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "KPV Kokkola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SJK Akatemia vs KPV Kokkola

KPV Kokkola beat SJK Akatemia 6-0 in Suomen Cup on February 14, 2020.

The match was played at Wallsport Areena in Seinäjoki.