Sivasspor 4–0 Yeni Malatyaspor: Result & Stats

Sivasspor

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Yeni Malatyaspor

1/14/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 8th FinalsYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sivasspor60%

×Draw23%

Yeni Malatyaspor17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SivassporExpected goals in this matchYeni Malatyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.85

Sivasspor

1.81

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.85

Sivasspor creates 113% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

1.63

creates per match

0.86

0.84

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sivasspor

1.63

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.86

allows per match

Sivasspor

0.84

Yeni Malatyaspor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw

83%

Sivasspor or Yeni Malatyaspor

77%

Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor

40%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+

35%

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals

84%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

54%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

27%

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

57%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

21%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

78%

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.63 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.86 + Sivasspor defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sivasspor scores more

60%

level

23%

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

17%

Sivasspor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff