Sivasspor 3–3 Vanspor FK: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Sivasspor

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Vanspor FK

R. Manaj 32', 28'

A. Appindangoye 8'

M. Cavusoglu 90'

K. Mamah 68', 30'

2/14/2026

1. Lig · Round 25BG Grup 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sivasspor50%

×Draw25%

Vanspor FK25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SivassporExpected goals in this matchVanspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.06

Sivasspor

1.61

Vanspor FK

1.06

Sivasspor creates 52% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.21

creates per match

0.88

1.25

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Sivasspor

1.21

Vanspor FK

0.88

allows per match

Sivasspor

1.25

Vanspor FK

2.01

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.92scores more than expected

finishing

Sivasspor-0.11scores less

Vanspor FK+0.92scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Vanspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw

75%

Sivasspor or Vanspor FK

75%

Draw or Vanspor FK

50%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+

26%

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals

80%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

48%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

22%

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

65%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

29%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

67%

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.01 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.21 + Vanspor FK defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vanspor FK attack 0.88 + Sivasspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sivasspor scores more

50%

level

25%

Vanspor FK scores more

25%

Sivasspor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Manaj

Sivasspor · F

9.7

Match Events

8'

A. Appindangoye↳ V. Ethemi

13'

22'

28'

30'

32'

37'

41'

Bikoue← A. Traore

46'

O. Yigiter← C. Charisis

46'

57'

62'

63'

68'

K. Mamah↳ Bikoue

74'

D. Avramovski← C. Celik

74'

A. Malle← V. Ethemi

77'

Ensar Çavuşoğlu

81'

B. C. Kara← O. Caglayan

81'

E. Bars← M. Ozcan

84'

T. Boke← J. Okoronkwo

86'

H. Bilal← S. Hostikka

90+3'

Emir Bars

90'

M. Cavusoglu↳ Bikoue

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SivassporVanspor

Overview

30%Possession70%

23Total Shots13

2.53Expected Goals (xG)1.16

6Corners4

13Fouls17

Shots

23Total Shots13

7On Target5

11Off Target6

5Blocked2

13Inside Box10

10Outside Box3

Passing

30%Possession70%

203Total Passes488

138Accurate Passes412

68%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls17

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides1