Sivasspor 1–0 Ümraniyespor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Sivasspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ümraniyespor

T. Glumac 45' (OG)

3/15/2026

1. Lig · Round 31BG Grup 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sivasspor37%

×Draw28%

Ümraniyespor35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SivassporExpected goals in this matchÜmraniyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.15

Sivasspor

1.19

Ümraniyespor

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.21

creates per match

1.04

1.25

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Sivasspor

1.21

Ümraniyespor

1.04

allows per match

Sivasspor

1.25

Ümraniyespor

1.16

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

Sivasspor-0.11scores less

Ümraniyespor-0.54scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Ümraniyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw

65%

Sivasspor or Ümraniyespor

72%

Draw or Ümraniyespor

63%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+

16%

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals

70%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

33%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

12%

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

68%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

32%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

51%

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.16 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.21 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ümraniyespor attack 1.04 + Sivasspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sivasspor scores more

37%

level

28%

Ümraniyespor scores more

35%

Sivasspor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

C. Topaloglu

Ümraniyespor · G

8.7

Match Events

7'

T. Boke← R. Manaj

34'

Kamil Fidan

45'

T. GlumacOwn goal

58'

S. Goksu← E. Hoti

59'

T. Kosoko← B. Ekincier

62'

Cihat Çelik

65'

D. Avramovski← C. Charisis

65'

A. Malle← E. Gokay

75'

K. Aktas← A. Djokanovic

75'

80'

85'

88'

90+4'

90+1'

Mehmet Göktuğ Bakırbaş

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SivassporÜmraniyespor

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots8

1.42Expected Goals (xG)0.54

9Corners6

13Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots8

6On Target0

1Off Target5

2Blocked3

5Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

380Total Passes385

301Accurate Passes307

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls7

6Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1