Sivasspor 3–0 Karacabey Belediyespor

Sivasspor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Karacabey Belediyespor

C. N'Jie 84'

H. Arslan 74', 38'

1/17/2023

Türkiye Kupası · Round of 16RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sivasspor36%

×Draw26%

Karacabey Belediyespor38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SivassporExpected goals in this matchKaracabey Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.36

Sivasspor

1.31

Karacabey Belediyespor

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.63

creates per match

1.88

0.84

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sivasspor

1.63

Karacabey Belediyespor

1.88

allows per match

Sivasspor

0.84

Karacabey Belediyespor

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Karacabey Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Karacabey Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw

62%

Sivasspor or Karacabey Belediyespor

74%

Draw or Karacabey Belediyespor

64%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+

16%

Karacabey Belediyespor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals

73%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

38%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

14%

Karacabey Belediyespor 1+ goals

74%

Karacabey Belediyespor 2+ goals

39%

Karacabey Belediyespor 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

48%

Karacabey Belediyespor (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Karacabey Belediyespor away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.63 + Karacabey Belediyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Karacabey Belediyespor attack 1.88 + Sivasspor defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sivasspor scores more

36%

level

26%

Karacabey Belediyespor scores more

38%

Karacabey Belediyespor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Karacabey Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

H. Arslan↳ C. Charisis

46'

Ö. Kuşan← D. Taşkaya

46'

H. Demir← E. Dikbasan

68'

B. Kara← V. Bora

68'

U. Türk← A. Kurtuluş

72'

Z. Erdal← A. Musa

74'

H. Arslan

76'

B. Özgün← M. Diler

78'

R. Yalçın← H. Arslan

78'

F. Ulvestad← C. Charisis

84'

C. N'Jie↳ F. Ulvestad

85'

D. Goutas← C. NJie

85'

K. Keita← I. Cofie

Statistics

SivassporKaracabey

Overview

6Corners1