Sivasspor 1–4 Fiorentina: Result & Stats

Sivasspor

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Fiorentina

E. Yeşilyurt 35'

G. Castrovilli 89'

D. Goutas 78' (OG)

N. Milenković 62'

Arthur Cabral 44'

3/16/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sivasspor30%

×Draw23%

Fiorentina48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SivassporExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.84

Sivasspor

1.41

Fiorentina

1.84

Fiorentina creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

1.67

creates per match

1.85

1.83

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Sivasspor

1.67

Fiorentina

1.85

allows per match

Sivasspor

1.83

Fiorentina

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw

52%

Sivasspor or Fiorentina

77%

Draw or Fiorentina

70%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+

13%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals

76%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

41%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

17%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

84%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

55%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

38%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.67 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.41

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + Sivasspor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sivasspor scores more

30%

level

23%

Fiorentina scores more

48%

Fiorentina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

R. Mandragora

Fiorentina · M

7.6

Match Events

15'

F. Ulvestad← C. Charisis

35'

E. Yeşilyurt↳ I. Cofie

44'

Arthur Cabral

62'

N. Milenković↳ R. Mandragora

63'

Dimitris Goutas

65'

Lucas Martínez Quarta

66'

L. James← I. Cofie

66'

C. N'Jie← J. Caicedo

66'

Igor← L. Martínez

75'

E. Gökay← Samuel Sáiz

75'

M. Yatabaré← M. Paluli

76'

Fredrik Ulvestad

78'

D. GoutasOwn goal

81'

Hakan Arslan

83'

C. Kouamé← Arthur Cabral

83'

R. Saponara← N. González

84'

G. Castrovilli← G. Bonaventura

84'

A. Bianco← S. Amrabat

89'

G. Castrovilli

90+2'

Erdoğan Yeşilyurt

90+2'

Nikola Milenković

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SivassporFiorentina

Overview

35%Possession65%

5Total Shots18

0.20Expected Goals (xG)1.64

3Corners8

10Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots18

2On Target9

3Off Target6

0Blocked3

1Inside Box10

4Outside Box8

Passing

35%Possession65%

249Total Passes461

162Accurate Passes381

65%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0