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Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Sivasspor
Sivassporadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
3/2/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sivasspor43%
×Draw24%
Fatih Karagümrük33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sivasspor
1.61
Fatih Karagümrük
1.39

Sivasspor creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sivasspor
1.76
Fatih Karagümrük
1.92

allows per match

Sivasspor
0.86
Fatih Karagümrük
1.46

finishing

Sivasspor+0.00on par
Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw
67%
Sivasspor or Fatih Karagümrük
76%
Draw or Fatih Karagümrük
57%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+
22%
Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals
80%
Sivasspor 2+ goals
48%
Sivasspor 3+ goals
22%
Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
75%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
40%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)
56%
Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.76 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.92 + Sivasspor defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sivasspor scores more
43%
level
24%
Fatih Karagümrük scores more
33%

Sivasspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Sivasspor 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük

Sivasspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on March 2, 2022.

The match was played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Sivas.