Sivasspor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor: Result & Stats

Sivasspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Esenler Erokspor

A. Karaman 77'

12/18/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sivasspor47%

×Draw24%

Esenler Erokspor29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SivassporExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.25

Sivasspor

1.65

Esenler Erokspor

1.25

Sivasspor creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

1.63

creates per match

1.67

0.84

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sivasspor

1.63

Esenler Erokspor

1.67

allows per match

Sivasspor

0.84

Esenler Erokspor

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw

71%

Sivasspor or Esenler Erokspor

76%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

53%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+

24%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals

81%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

49%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

23%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

71%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

36%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

62%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.63 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.67 + Sivasspor defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sivasspor scores more

47%

level

24%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

29%

Sivasspor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Paul Papp

63'

E. Pazar← E. Adiloğlu

67'

A. Appindangoye← A. Đerlek

72'

Efe Can Colbekler

73'

U. Çiftçi← I. Cofie

77'

A. Karaman

90+1'

E. Tekgül← A. Karaman

Sivasspor4-2-3-1

Esenler

1

23

3

33

16

70

6

57

8

⚽

▼

Karaman

97

▼

7

29

20

26

58

6

5

▼

Cofie

12

Traoré

22

▼

11

54

2

Manager: R. Çalımbay

67'▲A. Appindangoye←▼A. Đerlek

73'▲U. Çiftçi←▼I. Cofie

Sivasspor substitutes

4Appindangoye3Çiftçi1Yıldırım81Tuncer23Sağman52Egri

63'▲E. Pazar←▼E. Adiloğlu

90+1'▲E. Tekgül←▼A. Karaman

Esenler Erokspor substitutes

99Pazar77Tekgül25Akın20Özcan36Akıncı17Engin