Sivasspor 0–2 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Sivasspor

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Erzurumspor FK

G. Crociata 90'

B. Keser 41'

1/11/2026

1. Lig · Round 20BG Grup 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sivasspor42%

×Draw28%

Erzurumspor FK31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SivassporExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.08

Sivasspor

1.31

Erzurumspor FK

1.08

Sivasspor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 110 away

1.55

creates per match

1.16

1.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Sivasspor

1.55

Erzurumspor FK

1.16

allows per match

Sivasspor

1.00

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw

69%

Sivasspor or Erzurumspor FK

72%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

58%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+

19%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals

73%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

38%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

14%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

66%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

29%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

58%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.55 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.31

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Sivasspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sivasspor scores more

42%

level

28%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

31%

Sivasspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

B. Keser

Erzurumspor FK · M

8.0

Match Events

29'

41'

46'

46'

65'

68'

74'

74'

M. Rodriguez← M. Fettahoglu

80'

Charis Charisis

83'

M. Celik← K. Fidan

83'

D. Avramovski← V. Ethemi

83'

A. Ulgen← O. Ovacikli

84'

S. Sarikaya← B. Keser

90+2'

Okan Erdoğan

90'

G. Crociata↳ M. Rodriguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SivassporErzurumspor

Overview

41%Possession59%

6Total Shots16

0.39Expected Goals (xG)1.97

4Corners1

10Fouls7

Shots

6Total Shots16

1On Target5

4Off Target8

1Blocked3

2Inside Box10

4Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

367Total Passes537

301Accurate Passes463

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2