Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sivasspor vs BAK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Sivasspor
Sivasspor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
BAK
BAK
10/26/2016Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sivasspor71%
×Draw19%
BAK11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sivasspor
2.13
BAK
0.68

Sivasspor creates 213% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sivasspor
1.76
BAK
0.50

allows per match

Sivasspor
0.86
BAK
2.50

finishing

Sivasspor+0.00on par
BAK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

BAK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw
89%
Sivasspor or BAK
81%
Draw or BAK
29%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+
46%
BAK wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals
88%
Sivasspor 2+ goals
63%
Sivasspor 3+ goals
35%
BAK 1+ goals
49%
BAK 2+ goals
15%
BAK 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)
87%
BAK (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

BAK away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.76 + BAK defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

BAK attack 0.50 + Sivasspor defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sivasspor scores more
71%
level
19%
BAK scores more
11%

Sivasspor at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sivasspor vs BAK

Sivasspor beat BAK 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on October 26, 2016.

The match was played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Sivas.