Sivasspor 2–1 Arnavutköy Belediyespor

Sivasspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

A. Musa 25'

H. Arslan 19' (pen)

H. Özcan 45'

12/7/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundBG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sivasspor54%

×Draw24%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SivassporExpected goals in this matchArnavutköy Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.00

Sivasspor

1.73

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

1.00

Sivasspor creates 73% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

1.63

creates per match

1.17

0.84

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sivasspor

1.63

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

1.17

allows per match

Sivasspor

0.84

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Arnavutköy Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Arnavutköy Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw

78%

Sivasspor or Arnavutköy Belediyespor

76%

Draw or Arnavutköy Belediyespor

46%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+

30%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals

82%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

52%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

25%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1+ goals

63%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2+ goals

26%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

71%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Arnavutköy Belediyespor away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.63 + Arnavutköy Belediyespor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Arnavutköy Belediyespor attack 1.17 + Sivasspor defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sivasspor scores more

54%

level

24%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor scores more

22%

Sivasspor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

H. ArslanPenalty

25'

45'

46'

48'

64'

73'

73'

73'

74'

R. Manaj← A. Musa

74'

76'

83'

90+1'

Statistics

SivassporArnavutköy

Overview

5Corners3

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2