Sivasspor 2–1 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats

Sivasspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ankaragücü

12/30/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sivasspor53%

×Draw23%

Ankaragücü23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SivassporExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.09

Sivasspor

1.77

Ankaragücü

1.09

Sivasspor creates 62% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

1.76

creates per match

1.33

0.86

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Sivasspor

1.76

Ankaragücü

1.33

allows per match

Sivasspor

0.86

Ankaragücü

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw

77%

Sivasspor or Ankaragücü

77%

Draw or Ankaragücü

47%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+

30%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals

83%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

53%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

26%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

66%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

30%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

69%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.76 + Ankaragücü defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ankaragücü attack 1.33 + Sivasspor defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sivasspor scores more

53%

level

23%

Ankaragücü scores more

23%

Sivasspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff