Sivas Belediyespor 2–2 Vanspor FK: Result & Stats

Sivas Belediyespor

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vanspor FK

D. Karakuş 72'

Y. Elmas 61'

H. Küçükköylü 55', 15'

2/27/2022

League #205 · Kirmizi - 28Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sivas Belediyespor32%

×Draw22%

Vanspor FK46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sivas BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchVanspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.92

Sivas Belediyespor

1.58

Vanspor FK

1.92

Vanspor FK creates 22% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

2.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sivas Belediyespor

1.50

Vanspor FK

1.33

allows per match

Sivas Belediyespor

2.50

Vanspor FK

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sivas Belediyespor+0.00on par

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivas Belediyespor ↓

Vanspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sivas Belediyespor or draw

54%

Sivas Belediyespor or Vanspor FK

78%

Draw or Vanspor FK

68%

Winning margin

Sivas Belediyespor wins by 2+

15%

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Sivas Belediyespor 1+ goals

79%

Sivas Belediyespor 2+ goals

47%

Sivas Belediyespor 3+ goals

21%

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

85%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

57%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Sivas Belediyespor (draw refunded)

41%

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivas Belediyespor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivas Belediyespor attack 1.50 + Vanspor FK defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vanspor FK attack 1.33 + Sivas Belediyespor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sivas Belediyespor scores more

32%

level

22%

Vanspor FK scores more

46%

Vanspor FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

H. Küçükköylü

55'

H. Küçükköylü

57'

S. Nas← F. Sağman

57'

Y. Candemir← A. Koçaklı

57'

D. Karakuş← O. Bozkurt

61'

70'

70'

72'

78'

90'

Sivas

Vanspor

33

22

15

93

23

7

▼

Tacir

88

▼

Özdıraz

99

▼

Akyüz

94

▼

Sağır

61

Özçiçek

9

⚽2

29

5

4

77

63

70

10

6

⚽

Elmas

7

▼

Koçaklı

23

▼

Sağman

9

▼

Bozkurt

Manager: Y. Tokuş

57'▲S. Nas←▼F. Sağman

57'▲Y. Candemir←▼A. Koçaklı

57'▲D. Karakuş←▼O. Bozkurt

Sivas Belediyespor substitutes

15Nas66Candemir80Karakuş1Doğan8Aydın14Tekin33Kılıç44Sığırcı61Mızrap35Avcu

Manager: E. Altın

70'▲F. Polat←▼M. Özdıraz

70'▲A. Aydemir←▼E. Tacir

78'▲O. Aydin←▼B. Sağır

90'▲T. Gür←▼K. Akyüz

Vanspor FK substitutes

14Polat18Aydemir65Aydin44Gür45Bağ21Aydın50Gürdal80Şengüler4Yıldız97Nalbant

Match Recap: Sivas Belediyespor vs Vanspor FK

Sivas Belediyespor and Vanspor FK drew 2-2 in League #205 on February 27, 2022.

Goals: H. Küçükköylü (15', 55'), Y. Elmas (61'), D. Karakuş (72').

The match was played at Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu Stadyumu in Sivas.

Sivas Belediyespor vs Vanspor FK — League #205 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sivas Belediyespor vs Vanspor FK