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Sivas Belediyespor vs Denizlispor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Sivas Belediyespor
Sivas Belediyespor
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Denizlispor
Denizlispor
10/30/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundMuhsin Yazıcıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sivas Belediyespor27%
×Draw21%
Denizlispor52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sivas Belediyespor
1.46
Denizlispor
2.08

Denizlispor creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sivas Belediyespor
1.67
Denizlispor
2.50

allows per match

Sivas Belediyespor
1.67
Denizlispor
1.25

finishing

Sivas Belediyespor+0.00on par
Denizlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivas Belediyespor ↓

Denizlispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sivas Belediyespor or draw
48%
Sivas Belediyespor or Denizlispor
79%
Draw or Denizlispor
73%

Winning margin

Sivas Belediyespor wins by 2+
12%
Denizlispor wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Sivas Belediyespor 1+ goals
77%
Sivas Belediyespor 2+ goals
43%
Sivas Belediyespor 3+ goals
18%
Denizlispor 1+ goals
87%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
61%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Sivas Belediyespor (draw refunded)
34%
Denizlispor (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivas Belediyespor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Denizlispor away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivas Belediyespor attack 1.67 + Denizlispor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Denizlispor attack 2.50 + Sivas Belediyespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sivas Belediyespor scores more
27%
level
21%
Denizlispor scores more
52%

Denizlispor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sivas Belediyespor vs Denizlispor

Sivas Belediyespor and Denizlispor drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 30, 2018.

The match was played at Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu Stadyumu in Sivas.