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Sittard U21 vs De Graafschap U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Sittard U21
Sittard U21
FT
1 – 1
De Graafschap U21
De Graafschap U21
1/17/2026U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 2Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sittard U2125%
×Draw20%
De Graafschap U2155%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sittard U21
1.55
De Graafschap U21
2.34

De Graafschap U21 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 50 away

creates per match

Sittard U21
1.43
De Graafschap U21
1.40

allows per match

Sittard U21
3.29
De Graafschap U21
1.68

finishing

Sittard U21+0.00on par
De Graafschap U21+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sittard U21 ↓

De Graafschap U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Sittard U21 or draw
45%
Sittard U21 or De Graafschap U21
80%
Draw or De Graafschap U21
75%

Winning margin

Sittard U21 wins by 2+
11%
De Graafschap U21 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Sittard U21 1+ goals
79%
Sittard U21 2+ goals
46%
Sittard U21 3+ goals
20%
De Graafschap U21 1+ goals
90%
De Graafschap U21 2+ goals
67%
De Graafschap U21 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Sittard U21 (draw refunded)
31%
De Graafschap U21 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sittard U21 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

De Graafschap U21 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.68 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sittard U21 attack 1.43 + De Graafschap U21 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.55

De Graafschap U21 attack 1.40 + Sittard U21 defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sittard U21 scores more
25%
level
20%
De Graafschap U21 scores more
55%

De Graafschap U21 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "De Graafschap U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sittard U21 1 – 1 De Graafschap U21

Sittard U21 and De Graafschap U21 drew 1-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Sittard.