Sittard U21 1–2 Cambuur U21: Result & Stats

Sittard U21

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cambuur U21

2/28/2026

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 4Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sittard U2130%

×Draw20%

Cambuur U2150%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sittard U21Expected goals in this matchCambuur U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.38

Sittard U21

1.81

Cambuur U21

2.38

Cambuur U21 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 42 away

1.43

creates per match

1.48

3.29

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Sittard U21

1.43

Cambuur U21

1.48

allows per match

Sittard U21

3.29

Cambuur U21

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sittard U21+0.00on par

Cambuur U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sittard U21 ↓

Cambuur U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Sittard U21 or draw

50%

Sittard U21 or Cambuur U21

80%

Draw or Cambuur U21

70%

Winning margin

Sittard U21 wins by 2+

15%

Cambuur U21 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Sittard U21 1+ goals

84%

Sittard U21 2+ goals

54%

Sittard U21 3+ goals

27%

Cambuur U21 1+ goals

91%

Cambuur U21 2+ goals

68%

Cambuur U21 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Sittard U21 (draw refunded)

37%

Cambuur U21 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sittard U21 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

Cambuur U21 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sittard U21 attack 1.43 + Cambuur U21 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.81

Cambuur U21 attack 1.48 + Sittard U21 defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sittard U21 scores more

30%

level

20%

Cambuur U21 scores more

50%

Cambuur U21 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cambuur U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff