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Sitra vs Busaiteen — Premier League 2019

Sitra
Sitra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Busaiteen
Busaiteen
10/7/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sitra45%
×Draw29%
Busaiteen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sitra
1.26
Busaiteen
0.88

Sitra creates 43% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sitra
1.13
Busaiteen
0.74

allows per match

Sitra
1.02
Busaiteen
1.39

finishing

Sitra+0.00on par
Busaiteen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sitra ↓

Busaiteen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sitra or draw
74%
Sitra or Busaiteen
71%
Draw or Busaiteen
55%

Winning margin

Sitra wins by 2+
20%
Busaiteen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sitra 1+ goals
72%
Sitra 2+ goals
36%
Sitra 3+ goals
13%
Busaiteen 1+ goals
59%
Busaiteen 2+ goals
22%
Busaiteen 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sitra (draw refunded)
64%
Busaiteen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sitra at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

Busaiteen away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sitra attack 1.13 + Busaiteen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Busaiteen attack 0.74 + Sitra defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sitra scores more
45%
level
29%
Busaiteen scores more
26%

Sitra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sitra 1–1 Busaiteen

Sitra and Busaiteen drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.