Sitatunga 2–4 UPI-ONM: Result & Stats

Sitatunga

FT

2 – 4

UPI-ONM

11/30/2022

Championnat National · Round 5Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sitatunga47%

×Draw28%

UPI-ONM24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SitatungaExpected goals in this matchUPI-ONM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.86

Sitatunga

1.32

UPI-ONM

0.86

Sitatunga creates 53% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 83 away

0.98

creates per match

0.71

1.02

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sitatunga

0.98

UPI-ONM

0.71

allows per match

Sitatunga

1.02

UPI-ONM

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sitatunga+0.00on par

UPI-ONM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sitatunga ↓

UPI-ONM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sitatunga or draw

76%

Sitatunga or UPI-ONM

72%

Draw or UPI-ONM

53%

Winning margin

Sitatunga wins by 2+

22%

UPI-ONM wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sitatunga 1+ goals

73%

Sitatunga 2+ goals

38%

Sitatunga 3+ goals

15%

UPI-ONM 1+ goals

58%

UPI-ONM 2+ goals

21%

UPI-ONM 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sitatunga (draw refunded)

66%

UPI-ONM (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sitatunga at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

UPI-ONM away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.66 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sitatunga attack 0.98 + UPI-ONM defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.32

UPI-ONM attack 0.71 + Sitatunga defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sitatunga scores more

47%

level

28%

UPI-ONM scores more

24%

Sitatunga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sitatunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff