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Sitatunga vs JAK — Championnat National 2019

Sitatunga
Sitatunga
FT
1 – 0
JAK
JAK
12/7/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 11Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sitatunga43%
×Draw30%
JAK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sitatunga
1.18
JAK
0.88

Sitatunga creates 34% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 49 away

creates per match

Sitatunga
0.98
JAK
0.73

allows per match

Sitatunga
1.02
JAK
1.37

finishing

Sitatunga+0.00on par
JAK+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sitatunga ↓

JAK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sitatunga or draw
73%
Sitatunga or JAK
70%
Draw or JAK
57%

Winning margin

Sitatunga wins by 2+
18%
JAK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sitatunga 1+ goals
69%
Sitatunga 2+ goals
33%
Sitatunga 3+ goals
12%
JAK 1+ goals
59%
JAK 2+ goals
22%
JAK 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sitatunga (draw refunded)
61%
JAK (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sitatunga at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

JAK away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sitatunga attack 0.98 + JAK defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.18

JAK attack 0.73 + Sitatunga defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sitatunga scores more
43%
level
30%
JAK scores more
27%

Sitatunga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sitatunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sitatunga 1 – 0 JAK

Sitatunga beat JAK 1-0 in Championnat National on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi in Abomey Calavi.