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Sitatunga vs JAC — Championnat National 2019

Sitatunga
Sitatunga
FT
1 – 0
JAC
JAC
3/27/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 3Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sitatunga46%
×Draw30%
JAC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sitatunga
1.21
JAC
0.79

Sitatunga creates 53% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 40 away

creates per match

Sitatunga
0.98
JAC
0.57

allows per match

Sitatunga
1.02
JAC
1.43

finishing

Sitatunga+0.00on par
JAC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sitatunga ↓

JAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sitatunga or draw
76%
Sitatunga or JAC
70%
Draw or JAC
54%

Winning margin

Sitatunga wins by 2+
20%
JAC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sitatunga 1+ goals
70%
Sitatunga 2+ goals
34%
Sitatunga 3+ goals
12%
JAC 1+ goals
55%
JAC 2+ goals
19%
JAC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sitatunga (draw refunded)
66%
JAC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sitatunga at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

JAC away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.43 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sitatunga attack 0.98 + JAC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

JAC attack 0.57 + Sitatunga defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sitatunga scores more
46%
level
30%
JAC scores more
24%

Sitatunga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sitatunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sitatunga 1 – 0 JAC

Sitatunga beat JAC 1-0 in Championnat National on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi in Abomey Calavi.