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Sisu vs VIFK — Suomen Cup 2018

Sisu
Sisu
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
VIFK
VIFK
4/29/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundJouppilanvuoren tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sisu19%
×Draw19%
VIFK62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisu
1.27
VIFK
2.40

VIFK creates 89% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sisu
2.20
VIFK
3.00

allows per match

Sisu
1.80
VIFK
0.33

finishing

Sisu+0.00on par
VIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisu ↓

VIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sisu or draw
38%
Sisu or VIFK
81%
Draw or VIFK
81%

Winning margin

Sisu wins by 2+
8%
VIFK wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Sisu 1+ goals
72%
Sisu 2+ goals
36%
Sisu 3+ goals
14%
VIFK 1+ goals
91%
VIFK 2+ goals
69%
VIFK 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Sisu (draw refunded)
24%
VIFK (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisu at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

VIFK away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisu attack 2.20 + VIFK defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

VIFK attack 3.00 + Sisu defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sisu scores more
19%
level
19%
VIFK scores more
62%

VIFK at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "VIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sisu vs VIFK

VIFK beat Sisu 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Jouppilanvuoren tekonurmi in Seinäjoki.