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Sisu vs KOMU — Suomen Cup 2018

Sisu
Sisu
FT
5 – 1
KOMU
KOMU
4/2/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundOmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sisu33%
×Draw19%
KOMU48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisu
2.10
KOMU
2.52

KOMU creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sisu
2.20
KOMU
3.25

allows per match

Sisu
1.80
KOMU
2.00

finishing

Sisu+0.00on par
KOMU+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisu ↓

KOMU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Sisu or draw
52%
Sisu or KOMU
81%
Draw or KOMU
67%

Winning margin

Sisu wins by 2+
18%
KOMU wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Sisu 1+ goals
88%
Sisu 2+ goals
62%
Sisu 3+ goals
35%
KOMU 1+ goals
92%
KOMU 2+ goals
71%
KOMU 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Sisu (draw refunded)
41%
KOMU (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisu at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

KOMU away — creates 3.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisu attack 2.20 + KOMU defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

KOMU attack 3.25 + Sisu defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sisu scores more
33%
level
19%
KOMU scores more
48%

KOMU at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KOMU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sisu vs KOMU

Sisu beat KOMU 5-1 in Suomen Cup on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.