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Sisu vs Kiisto — Suomen Cup 2018

Sisu
Sisu
FT
0 – 3
Kiisto
Kiisto
3/27/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundOmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sisu9%
×Draw11%
Kiisto80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisu
1.60
Kiisto
4.40

Kiisto creates 175% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sisu
2.20
Kiisto
7.00

allows per match

Sisu
1.80
Kiisto
1.00

finishing

Sisu+0.00on par
Kiisto+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisu ↓

Kiisto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–34%
0–45%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
66%34%

Double chance

Sisu or draw
20%
Sisu or Kiisto
89%
Draw or Kiisto
91%

Winning margin

Sisu wins by 2+
4%
Kiisto wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Sisu 1+ goals
80%
Sisu 2+ goals
47%
Sisu 3+ goals
22%
Kiisto 1+ goals
99%
Kiisto 2+ goals
92%
Kiisto 3+ goals
78%

Draw no bet

Sisu (draw refunded)
11%
Kiisto (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisu at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Kiisto away — creates 7.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisu attack 2.20 + Kiisto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kiisto attack 7.00 + Sisu defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 4.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Sisu scores more
9%
level
11%
Kiisto scores more
80%

Kiisto at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Kiisto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Sisu 0–3 Kiisto

Kiisto beat Sisu 3-0 in Suomen Cup on March 27, 2024.

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.