Sisonkhe 0–1 Sidwashini United: Result & Stats

Sisonkhe

FT

0 – 1

Sidwashini United

11/24/2024

Premier League · Round 7Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sisonkhe37%

×Draw26%

Sidwashini United37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SisonkheExpected goals in this matchSidwashini United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.32

Sisonkhe

1.33

Sidwashini United

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

0.82

creates per match

0.69

1.96

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Sisonkhe

0.82

Sidwashini United

0.69

allows per match

Sisonkhe

1.96

Sidwashini United

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sisonkhe+0.00on par

Sidwashini United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisonkhe ↓

Sidwashini United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sisonkhe or draw

63%

Sisonkhe or Sidwashini United

74%

Draw or Sidwashini United

63%

Winning margin

Sisonkhe wins by 2+

17%

Sidwashini United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sisonkhe 1+ goals

74%

Sisonkhe 2+ goals

38%

Sisonkhe 3+ goals

15%

Sidwashini United 1+ goals

73%

Sidwashini United 2+ goals

38%

Sidwashini United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sisonkhe (draw refunded)

50%

Sidwashini United (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisonkhe at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

Sidwashini United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisonkhe attack 0.82 + Sidwashini United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sidwashini United attack 0.69 + Sisonkhe defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sisonkhe scores more

37%

level

26%

Sidwashini United scores more

37%

Sisonkhe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sisonkhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff