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Sisonkhe vs Moneni Pirates — Premier League 2020

Sisonkhe
Sisonkhe
FT
2 – 2
Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
5/3/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sisonkhe27%
×Draw26%
Moneni Pirates47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisonkhe
1.08
Moneni Pirates
1.50

Moneni Pirates creates 39% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sisonkhe
0.82
Moneni Pirates
1.04

allows per match

Sisonkhe
1.96
Moneni Pirates
1.35

finishing

Sisonkhe+0.00on par
Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisonkhe ↓

Moneni Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sisonkhe or draw
53%
Sisonkhe or Moneni Pirates
74%
Draw or Moneni Pirates
73%

Winning margin

Sisonkhe wins by 2+
10%
Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sisonkhe 1+ goals
66%
Sisonkhe 2+ goals
29%
Sisonkhe 3+ goals
10%
Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
78%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
44%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sisonkhe (draw refunded)
37%
Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisonkhe at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisonkhe attack 0.82 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Sisonkhe defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sisonkhe scores more
27%
level
26%
Moneni Pirates scores more
47%

Moneni Pirates at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Moneni Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sisonkhe vs Moneni Pirates

Sisonkhe and Moneni Pirates drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.