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Sisonkhe vs Illovo — Premier League 2020

Sisonkhe
Sisonkhe
FT
0 – 2
Illovo
Illovo
1/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sisonkhe30%
×Draw26%
Illovo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisonkhe
1.18
Illovo
1.50

Illovo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sisonkhe
0.82
Illovo
1.04

allows per match

Sisonkhe
1.96
Illovo
1.54

finishing

Sisonkhe+0.00on par
Illovo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisonkhe ↓

Illovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sisonkhe or draw
55%
Sisonkhe or Illovo
74%
Draw or Illovo
70%

Winning margin

Sisonkhe wins by 2+
12%
Illovo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sisonkhe 1+ goals
69%
Sisonkhe 2+ goals
33%
Sisonkhe 3+ goals
12%
Illovo 1+ goals
78%
Illovo 2+ goals
44%
Illovo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sisonkhe (draw refunded)
40%
Illovo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisonkhe at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

Illovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisonkhe attack 0.82 + Illovo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.18

Illovo attack 1.04 + Sisonkhe defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sisonkhe scores more
30%
level
26%
Illovo scores more
45%

Illovo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Illovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sisonkhe 0–2 Illovo

Illovo beat Sisonkhe 2-0 in Premier League on January 5, 2025.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.