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Sisaket vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Sisaket
Sisaket
FT
1 – 0
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
9/14/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 29Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium (Sisaket)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sisaket54%
×Draw24%
Udon Thani21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisaket
1.69
Udon Thani
0.96

Sisaket creates 76% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 82 away

creates per match

Sisaket
1.44
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Sisaket
0.77
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Sisaket+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sisaket or draw
79%
Sisaket or Udon Thani
76%
Draw or Udon Thani
46%

Winning margin

Sisaket wins by 2+
30%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sisaket 1+ goals
82%
Sisaket 2+ goals
50%
Sisaket 3+ goals
24%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
62%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
25%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sisaket (draw refunded)
72%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket attack 1.44 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Sisaket defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sisaket scores more
54%
level
24%
Udon Thani scores more
21%

Sisaket at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Sisaket 1–0 Udon Thani

Sisaket beat Udon Thani 1-0 in Thai League 2 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium (Sisaket).