Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sisaket vs Rayong FC — Thai League 2 2018

Sisaket
Sisaket
FT
1 – 0
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
4/11/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 9Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium (Sisaket)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sisaket45%
×Draw26%
Rayong FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisaket
1.44
Rayong FC
1.11

Sisaket creates 30% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 84 away

creates per match

Sisaket
1.44
Rayong FC
1.45

allows per match

Sisaket
0.77
Rayong FC
1.45

finishing

Sisaket+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sisaket or draw
71%
Sisaket or Rayong FC
74%
Draw or Rayong FC
55%

Winning margin

Sisaket wins by 2+
22%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sisaket 1+ goals
76%
Sisaket 2+ goals
42%
Sisaket 3+ goals
18%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
67%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
30%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sisaket (draw refunded)
60%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket attack 1.44 + Rayong FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rayong FC attack 1.45 + Sisaket defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sisaket scores more
45%
level
26%
Rayong FC scores more
29%

Sisaket at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sisaket vs Rayong FC

Sisaket beat Rayong FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on April 11, 2018.

The match was played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium (Sisaket).