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Sisaket vs PTT Rayong — Thai League 2 2018

Sisaket
Sisaket
FT
1 – 3
PTT Rayong
PTT Rayong
3/3/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 4Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium (Sisaket)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sisaket40%
×Draw29%
PTT Rayong32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisaket
1.19
PTT Rayong
1.03

Sisaket creates 16% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sisaket
1.44
PTT Rayong
1.29

allows per match

Sisaket
0.77
PTT Rayong
0.93

finishing

Sisaket+0.00on par
PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket ↓

PTT Rayong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sisaket or draw
68%
Sisaket or PTT Rayong
71%
Draw or PTT Rayong
60%

Winning margin

Sisaket wins by 2+
17%
PTT Rayong wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sisaket 1+ goals
70%
Sisaket 2+ goals
33%
Sisaket 3+ goals
12%
PTT Rayong 1+ goals
64%
PTT Rayong 2+ goals
28%
PTT Rayong 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sisaket (draw refunded)
56%
PTT Rayong (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

PTT Rayong away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket attack 1.44 + PTT Rayong defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

PTT Rayong attack 1.29 + Sisaket defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sisaket scores more
40%
level
29%
PTT Rayong scores more
32%

Sisaket at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sisaket vs PTT Rayong

PTT Rayong beat Sisaket 3-1 in Thai League 2 on March 3, 2018.

The match was played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium (Sisaket).