Sisaket 3–1 Police Tero: Result & Stats

Sisaket

FT

3 – 1

Police Tero

5/26/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 14Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium (Sisaket)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sisaket48%

×Draw26%

Police Tero27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SisaketExpected goals in this matchPolice Tero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.07

Sisaket

1.53

Police Tero

1.07

Sisaket creates 43% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 52 away

1.44

creates per match

1.38

0.77

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sisaket

1.44

Police Tero

1.38

allows per match

Sisaket

0.77

Police Tero

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sisaket+0.00on par

Police Tero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket ↓

Police Tero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sisaket or draw

73%

Sisaket or Police Tero

74%

Draw or Police Tero

52%

Winning margin

Sisaket wins by 2+

24%

Police Tero wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sisaket 1+ goals

78%

Sisaket 2+ goals

45%

Sisaket 3+ goals

20%

Police Tero 1+ goals

66%

Police Tero 2+ goals

29%

Police Tero 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sisaket (draw refunded)

64%

Police Tero (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Police Tero away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket attack 1.44 + Police Tero defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

Police Tero attack 1.38 + Sisaket defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sisaket scores more

48%

level

26%

Police Tero scores more

27%

Sisaket at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff