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Sisaket vs Pattani — FA Cup 2018

Sisaket
Sisaket
FT
9 – 2
Pattani
Pattani
3/27/2019FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sisaket84%
×Draw9%
Pattani7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisaket
4.54
Pattani
1.38

Sisaket creates 229% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sisaket
4.75
Pattani
1.00

allows per match

Sisaket
1.75
Pattani
4.33

finishing

Sisaket+0.00on par
Pattani+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket ↓

Pattani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Sisaket or draw
93%
Sisaket or Pattani
91%
Draw or Pattani
16%

Winning margin

Sisaket wins by 2+
70%
Pattani wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sisaket 1+ goals
99%
Sisaket 2+ goals
93%
Sisaket 3+ goals
80%
Pattani 1+ goals
75%
Pattani 2+ goals
40%
Pattani 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sisaket (draw refunded)
92%
Pattani (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket at home — creates 4.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Pattani away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket attack 4.75 + Pattani defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 4.54

Pattani attack 1.00 + Sisaket defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Sisaket scores more
84%
level
9%
Pattani scores more
7%

Sisaket at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sisaket vs Pattani

Sisaket beat Pattani 9-2 in FA Cup on March 27, 2019.