Sisaket 2–2 Kasetsart FC: Result & Stats

Sisaket

FT

2 – 2

Kasetsart FC

3/3/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 26Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sisaket57%

×Draw24%

Kasetsart FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SisaketExpected goals in this matchKasetsart FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.82

Sisaket

1.65

Kasetsart FC

0.82

Sisaket creates 101% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 132 away

1.44

creates per match

0.88

0.77

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Sisaket

1.44

Kasetsart FC

0.88

allows per match

Sisaket

0.77

Kasetsart FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sisaket+0.00on par

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket ↓

Kasetsart FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sisaket or draw

81%

Sisaket or Kasetsart FC

76%

Draw or Kasetsart FC

43%

Winning margin

Sisaket wins by 2+

31%

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sisaket 1+ goals

81%

Sisaket 2+ goals

49%

Sisaket 3+ goals

23%

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

56%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

20%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sisaket (draw refunded)

75%

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket attack 1.44 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Sisaket defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sisaket scores more

57%

level

24%

Kasetsart FC scores more

19%

Sisaket at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff