Sisaket 0–0 BG Pathum United: Result & Stats

Sisaket

FT

0 – 0

BG Pathum United

10/19/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 33Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium (Sisaket)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sisaket34%

×Draw26%

BG Pathum United39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SisaketExpected goals in this matchBG Pathum United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.35

Sisaket

1.25

BG Pathum United

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

1.44

creates per match

1.94

0.77

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Sisaket

1.44

BG Pathum United

1.94

allows per match

Sisaket

0.77

BG Pathum United

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sisaket+0.00on par

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket ↓

BG Pathum United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sisaket or draw

61%

Sisaket or BG Pathum United

74%

Draw or BG Pathum United

66%

Winning margin

Sisaket wins by 2+

15%

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sisaket 1+ goals

71%

Sisaket 2+ goals

36%

Sisaket 3+ goals

13%

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

74%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

39%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sisaket (draw refunded)

47%

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket attack 1.44 + BG Pathum United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

BG Pathum United attack 1.94 + Sisaket defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sisaket scores more

34%

level

26%

BG Pathum United scores more

39%

BG Pathum United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff