Sisaket 3–0 Ayutthaya FC: Result & Stats

Sisaket

FT

3 – 0

Ayutthaya FC

7/28/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 22Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium (Sisaket)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sisaket46%

×Draw27%

Ayutthaya FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SisaketExpected goals in this matchAyutthaya FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.01

Sisaket

1.41

Ayutthaya FC

1.01

Sisaket creates 40% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 101 away

1.44

creates per match

1.25

0.77

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sisaket

1.44

Ayutthaya FC

1.25

allows per match

Sisaket

0.77

Ayutthaya FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sisaket+0.00on par

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket ↓

Ayutthaya FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sisaket or draw

73%

Sisaket or Ayutthaya FC

73%

Draw or Ayutthaya FC

54%

Winning margin

Sisaket wins by 2+

22%

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sisaket 1+ goals

76%

Sisaket 2+ goals

41%

Sisaket 3+ goals

17%

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

64%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

27%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sisaket (draw refunded)

63%

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket attack 1.44 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Sisaket defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sisaket scores more

46%

level

27%

Ayutthaya FC scores more

27%

Sisaket at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff