Sisaket 1–1 Army United: Result & Stats

Sisaket

FT

1 – 1

Army United

3/31/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 7Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium (Sisaket)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sisaket47%

×Draw27%

Army United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SisaketExpected goals in this matchArmy United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.96

Sisaket

1.40

Army United

0.96

Sisaket creates 46% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

1.44

creates per match

1.16

0.77

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Sisaket

1.44

Army United

1.16

allows per match

Sisaket

0.77

Army United

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sisaket+0.00on par

Army United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket ↓

Army United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sisaket or draw

74%

Sisaket or Army United

73%

Draw or Army United

53%

Winning margin

Sisaket wins by 2+

23%

Army United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sisaket 1+ goals

75%

Sisaket 2+ goals

41%

Sisaket 3+ goals

17%

Army United 1+ goals

62%

Army United 2+ goals

25%

Army United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sisaket (draw refunded)

65%

Army United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Army United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket attack 1.44 + Army United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Army United attack 1.16 + Sisaket defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sisaket scores more

47%

level

27%

Army United scores more

26%

Sisaket at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff