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Sisaket United vs Rayong FC — FA Cup 2018

Sisaket United
Sisaket Unitedadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
F. Veloso 10'
12/21/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sisaket United56%
×Draw19%
Rayong FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisaket United
2.56
Rayong FC
1.71

Sisaket United creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sisaket United
3.63
Rayong FC
2.67

allows per match

Sisaket United
0.75
Rayong FC
1.50

finishing

Sisaket United+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket United ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Sisaket United or draw
75%
Sisaket United or Rayong FC
81%
Draw or Rayong FC
44%

Winning margin

Sisaket United wins by 2+
36%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sisaket United 1+ goals
92%
Sisaket United 2+ goals
72%
Sisaket United 3+ goals
46%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
82%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
51%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sisaket United (draw refunded)
69%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket United at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket United attack 3.63 + Rayong FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.56

Rayong FC attack 2.67 + Sisaket United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sisaket United scores more
56%
level
19%
Rayong FC scores more
25%

Sisaket United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sisaket United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
F. Veloso
Sisaket
Rayong
S. Chuayboonchum
Manager: S. Chuayboonchum
Jukkapant Punpee
Manager: Jukkapant Punpee

Match Recap: Sisaket United vs Rayong FC

Sisaket United beat Rayong FC 1-0 in FA Cup on December 21, 2025.

Goals: F. Veloso (10').

The match was played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.