Sisaket United vs Pattaya United

Sisaket United

CANC

11:00

Pattaya United

4/19/2025

Thai League 2 · Round 33Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sisaket United56%

×Draw25%

Pattaya United19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sisaket UnitedExpected goals in this matchPattaya United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.82

Sisaket United

1.59

Pattaya United

0.82

Sisaket United creates 94% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 43 away

1.52

creates per match

0.86

0.79

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sisaket United

1.52

Pattaya United

0.86

allows per match

Sisaket United

0.79

Pattaya United

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sisaket United+0.00on par

Pattaya United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket United ↓

Pattaya United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sisaket United or draw

81%

Sisaket United or Pattaya United

75%

Draw or Pattaya United

44%

Winning margin

Sisaket United wins by 2+

30%

Pattaya United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sisaket United 1+ goals

80%

Sisaket United 2+ goals

47%

Sisaket United 3+ goals

21%

Pattaya United 1+ goals

56%

Pattaya United 2+ goals

20%

Pattaya United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sisaket United (draw refunded)

74%

Pattaya United (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket United at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.79 · 33 matches

Pattaya United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket United attack 1.52 + Pattaya United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Pattaya United attack 0.86 + Sisaket United defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sisaket United scores more

56%

level

25%

Pattaya United scores more

19%

Sisaket United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sisaket United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff