Sisaket United 1–1 Nakhon Si Thammarat

Sisaket United

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nakhon Si Thammarat

10/19/2022

League Cup · Play-offsSri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sisaket United30%

×Draw26%

Nakhon Si Thammarat44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sisaket UnitedExpected goals in this matchNakhon Si Thammarat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.45

Sisaket United

1.15

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.45

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

1.50

1.40

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Sisaket United

1.80

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.50

allows per match

Sisaket United

1.40

Nakhon Si Thammarat

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sisaket United+0.00on par

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket United ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sisaket United or draw

56%

Sisaket United or Nakhon Si Thammarat

74%

Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat

70%

Winning margin

Sisaket United wins by 2+

12%

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sisaket United 1+ goals

68%

Sisaket United 2+ goals

32%

Sisaket United 3+ goals

11%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

77%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

42%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sisaket United (draw refunded)

41%

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket United attack 1.80 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.50 + Sisaket United defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sisaket United scores more

30%

level

26%

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

44%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff