Sisaket United 1–1 Esan Pattaya: Result & Stats

Sisaket United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Esan Pattaya

8/10/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 1Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sisaket United47%

×Draw27%

Esan Pattaya26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sisaket UnitedExpected goals in this matchEsan Pattaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.95

Sisaket United

1.40

Esan Pattaya

0.95

Sisaket United creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

1.52

creates per match

1.10

0.79

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Sisaket United

1.52

Esan Pattaya

1.10

allows per match

Sisaket United

0.79

Esan Pattaya

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sisaket United+0.00on par

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket United ↓

Esan Pattaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sisaket United or draw

74%

Sisaket United or Esan Pattaya

73%

Draw or Esan Pattaya

53%

Winning margin

Sisaket United wins by 2+

23%

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sisaket United 1+ goals

75%

Sisaket United 2+ goals

41%

Sisaket United 3+ goals

17%

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals

61%

Esan Pattaya 2+ goals

25%

Esan Pattaya 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sisaket United (draw refunded)

65%

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket United at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.79 · 33 matches

Esan Pattaya away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket United attack 1.52 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Esan Pattaya attack 1.10 + Sisaket United defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sisaket United scores more

47%

level

27%

Esan Pattaya scores more

26%

Sisaket United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sisaket United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff