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Sisaket United vs Bangkok — Thai League 2 2018

Sisaket United
Sisaket United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bangkok
Bangkok
11/8/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 12Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sisaket United52%
×Draw24%
Bangkok24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisaket United
1.73
Bangkok
1.10

Sisaket United creates 57% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sisaket United
1.52
Bangkok
1.42

allows per match

Sisaket United
0.79
Bangkok
1.94

finishing

Sisaket United+0.00on par
Bangkok+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket United ↓

Bangkok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sisaket United or draw
76%
Sisaket United or Bangkok
76%
Draw or Bangkok
48%

Winning margin

Sisaket United wins by 2+
28%
Bangkok wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sisaket United 1+ goals
82%
Sisaket United 2+ goals
52%
Sisaket United 3+ goals
25%
Bangkok 1+ goals
67%
Bangkok 2+ goals
30%
Bangkok 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sisaket United (draw refunded)
68%
Bangkok (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket United at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.79 · 33 matches

Bangkok away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket United attack 1.52 + Bangkok defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bangkok attack 1.42 + Sisaket United defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sisaket United scores more
52%
level
24%
Bangkok scores more
24%

Sisaket United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sisaket United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Sisaket United 3–1 Bangkok

Sisaket United beat Bangkok 3-1 in Thai League 2 on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.