Siroki Brijeg 2–1 Zvijezda 09: Result & Stats

Siroki Brijeg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Zvijezda 09

9/17/2023

Premijer Liga · Round 7Stadion Pecara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Siroki Brijeg69%

×Draw20%

Zvijezda 0912%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siroki BrijegExpected goals in this matchZvijezda 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

0.69

Siroki Brijeg

2.03

Zvijezda 09

0.69

Siroki Brijeg creates 194% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 28 away

1.38

creates per match

0.43

0.96

allows per match

2.68

creates per match

Siroki Brijeg

1.38

Zvijezda 09

0.43

allows per match

Siroki Brijeg

0.96

Zvijezda 09

2.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siroki Brijeg ↓

Zvijezda 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Siroki Brijeg or draw

88%

Siroki Brijeg or Zvijezda 09

80%

Draw or Zvijezda 09

31%

Winning margin

Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+

43%

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals

87%

Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals

60%

Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals

33%

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals

50%

Zvijezda 09 2+ goals

15%

Zvijezda 09 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)

85%

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siroki Brijeg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siroki Brijeg attack 1.38 + Zvijezda 09 defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.03

Zvijezda 09 attack 0.43 + Siroki Brijeg defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Siroki Brijeg scores more

69%

level

20%

Zvijezda 09 scores more

12%

Siroki Brijeg at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Siroki Brijeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff