Siroki Brijeg 0–2 Zrinjski: Result & Stats

Siroki Brijeg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Zrinjski

7/11/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Siroki Brijeg13%

×Draw16%

Zrinjski71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siroki BrijegExpected goals in this matchZrinjski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

2.73

Siroki Brijeg

1.09

Zrinjski

2.73

Zrinjski creates 150% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.43

creates per match

3.75

1.71

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Siroki Brijeg

1.43

Zrinjski

3.75

allows per match

Siroki Brijeg

1.71

Zrinjski

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par

Zrinjski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siroki Brijeg ↓

Zrinjski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Siroki Brijeg or draw

29%

Siroki Brijeg or Zrinjski

84%

Draw or Zrinjski

87%

Winning margin

Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+

5%

Zrinjski wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals

66%

Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals

30%

Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals

10%

Zrinjski 1+ goals

93%

Zrinjski 2+ goals

75%

Zrinjski 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)

15%

Zrinjski (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siroki Brijeg at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Zrinjski away — creates 3.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siroki Brijeg attack 1.43 + Zrinjski defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.09

Zrinjski attack 3.75 + Siroki Brijeg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Siroki Brijeg scores more

13%

level

16%

Zrinjski scores more

71%

Zrinjski at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff