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Siroki Brijeg vs Zrinjski — Premijer Liga 2019

Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zrinjski
Zrinjski
12/10/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 17Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Siroki Brijeg31%
×Draw29%
Zrinjski40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siroki Brijeg
1.04
Zrinjski
1.21

Zrinjski creates 16% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 109 away

creates per match

Siroki Brijeg
1.38
Zrinjski
1.45

allows per match

Siroki Brijeg
0.96
Zrinjski
0.71

finishing

Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par
Zrinjski+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siroki Brijeg ↓

Zrinjski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Siroki Brijeg or draw
60%
Siroki Brijeg or Zrinjski
71%
Draw or Zrinjski
69%

Winning margin

Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+
12%
Zrinjski wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals
65%
Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals
28%
Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals
9%
Zrinjski 1+ goals
70%
Zrinjski 2+ goals
34%
Zrinjski 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)
44%
Zrinjski (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siroki Brijeg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Zrinjski away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siroki Brijeg attack 1.38 + Zrinjski defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.04

Zrinjski attack 1.45 + Siroki Brijeg defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Siroki Brijeg scores more
31%
level
29%
Zrinjski scores more
40%

Zrinjski at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siroki Brijeg vs Zrinjski

Zrinjski beat Siroki Brijeg 2-0 in Premijer Liga on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mokri Dolac in Posušje.