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Siroki Brijeg vs FK Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
3/15/2026Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 25Stadion Pecara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Siroki Brijeg40%
×Draw27%
FK Sarajevo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siroki Brijeg
1.28
FK Sarajevo
1.14

Siroki Brijeg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 108 away

creates per match

Siroki Brijeg
1.38
FK Sarajevo
1.32

allows per match

Siroki Brijeg
0.96
FK Sarajevo
1.19

finishing

Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par
FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siroki Brijeg ↓

FK Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Siroki Brijeg or draw
67%
Siroki Brijeg or FK Sarajevo
73%
Draw or FK Sarajevo
60%

Winning margin

Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+
18%
FK Sarajevo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals
72%
Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals
37%
Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals
14%
FK Sarajevo 1+ goals
68%
FK Sarajevo 2+ goals
32%
FK Sarajevo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)
55%
FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siroki Brijeg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

FK Sarajevo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siroki Brijeg attack 1.38 + FK Sarajevo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

FK Sarajevo attack 1.32 + Siroki Brijeg defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Siroki Brijeg scores more
40%
level
27%
FK Sarajevo scores more
33%

Siroki Brijeg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Siroki Brijeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siroki Brijeg vs FK Sarajevo

Siroki Brijeg beat FK Sarajevo 1-0 in Premijer Liga on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Pecara.